07.20.26 - Reconciliation 3.0’s roadblocks

The House is slated to consider the blueprint for Republicans’ third reconciliation push this week. The $95-billion package will primarily bankroll the war on Iran and could be one of the last votes Republicans take before the midterm elections—assuming the package gets that far. Below, we’ll walk through the hurdles standing between reconciliation 3.0 and the President’s desk. 

Background

The House’s reconciliation blueprint tells four House committees to write parts of a reconciliation bill, dictates how much each committee may change government spending or revenue, and sets the committees’ deadline for doing so. We’ve summarized those instructions in the table below.

These instructions tell us the package’s primary purpose is to fund the Iran war. Even the $12 billion for the Agriculture Committee. While this funding is purportedly meant to aid farmers, the war and the Strait of Hormuz’s resultant closure brought about the higher gas and fertilizer prices that—coupled with Trump’s tariff regime—rendered this aid necessary. 

Offset watch

There’s some consternation within the GOP on whether and how to offset the bill’s massive price tag. Remember: the final bill can only touch topics that fall under the aforementioned committees' jurisdiction. 

If history is any indication, the Agriculture Committee’s inclusion could mean that the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, often called food stamps) will again be on Republicans’ chopping block. 

Recall that last year’s Republican megabill slashed SNAP funding in exchange for tax giveaways to the richest top 0.1 percent. As a result, about 4 million people lost access to food assistance. More cuts would balloon this number even further—this time, in exchange for prolonging the war. 

Senate alignment (or lack thereof)

Even if the House approves this blueprint this week, it’s not clear whether it has a future in the Senate. House Speaker Mike Johnson said last week that the Senate would take up the House-passed measure before heading home for August recess—an announcement that Senate Majority Leader John Thune called “news to me.” 

Now, the House and Senate have been out of step on reconciliation before; recall that last year, the chambers passed budget resolutions with different sets of instructions to kick off reconciliation 1.0. They eventually got on the same page and brought the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act over the finish line. 

But that dispute happened months before the chambers would eventually vote on a final bill. Republicans don’t have that kind of time. The House has less than 20 days left in session before the November midterms, and Members might be loath to add days in D.C. when they’d rather be home campaigning. 

Tl;dr: intra-GOP disagreements could derail this whole enterprise if they’re not resolved fast. We’ll keep you posted. 

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!