10.20.26 - What to watch in the lame duck

We’re two weeks away from the 2026 midterms, which means we’re just over two weeks away from Congress’s lame duck period. That window of 24 legislative days will be the last opportunity for this constellation of Members to advance their priorities before a new Congress is seated in January. With that new Congress could come a new majority in the House and/or Senate, new party and committee leaders, and other changes that transform dynamics in Washington for the next two years, if not longer. 

That potential for massive change next year could make for an eventful lame duck. Below, we’ll outline key factors that will determine what’s to come before January, and the items that might be on Congress’s end-of-year to-do list. 

One point to underscore first: this isn’t a list of what will likely happen or what should happen. This is a non-exhaustive rundown of what could happen. With that, let’s get into it. 

What factors will influence what Congress does during the lame duck?

How much does Congress change, and what does that mean for key roles? 

Let’s say Congress does not change much: the House and Senate stay in Republicans’ hands, and Members in influential positions—like Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), chair of the Senate Appropriations Commttee—keep their seats. In this scenario in which unified GOP control continues next year, there’s not a huge incentive for congressional Republicans to pack the lame duck calendar with Republican priorities that aren’t time-sensitive. Critical dynamics will be the same in January as they are now. 

Alternatively, let’s say the election results in big changes, like a new majority in either chamber and key GOP leaders losing their seats. If that’s the case, Congress could have a real last-train-leaving-the-station vibe through November and December as Republicans try to make their mark before power shifts to Democrats. More on that later.  

Will Members come back to Washington? 

Members who retire, leave for higher office, or lose re-election bids often stop showing up for votes in D.C. during the lame duck period. The potency of this phenomenon will, again, depend on how much Congress changes—i.e., if a large number of Members lose, we could see a larger absentee problem post-Election Day. 

What happens in the world?

Current events will also influence what happens post-election. For example, President Trump’s plan to import Russian diesel drew bipartisan pushback, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s (R-PA) announcement that he’ll force a vote to prevent the U.S. from buying Russian oil. 

What could Congress vote on during the lame duck?

Appropriations. Government funding expires on December 11. If either chamber flips, Republicans could try to advance long-term spending bills before January, solidifying their mark on federal funding well into a new Congress in which Democrats have more power. Democrats, on the other hand, could be reluctant to back GOP-authored bills right before they get the opportunity to exert more leverage over the spending process. As such, what happens on appropriations will depend heavily on what happens in the election. 

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This bill authorizing military spending for the coming year has passed every year for more than 60 years and often acts as a Christmas tree on which Members hang other priorities. The GOP House’s version passed this summer on a roughly party-line vote, while Democrats blocked the Senate’s version. The parties’ impasse is largely due to the proposed defense spending level—a record-breaking $1.5 trillion—and the ongoing war with Iran. Both chambers have formally rebuked the war, which Congress has not authorized. Numerous factors will influence the NDAA’s final form and prospects, including whether President Trump restarts attacks on Iran post-midterms as reporting suggests he might. 

Reconciliation 3.0. This summer, the House passed and the Senate introduced blueprints for another fast-track, party-line package. While those proposals focused largely on funding the Iran war, lawmakers have also floated using reconciliation to raise the debt limit if either chamber flips in the midterms. This would avoid President Trump being forced to negotiate with Democrats to raise the debt ceiling, which the U.S. will reportedly approach next year. In 2019, when the GOP controlled the White House and Senate but Democrats held the House, Democrats secured boosts to nondefense spending as part of a debt ceiling deal. 

Permitting reform. In September, a bipartisan Senate cohort announced a deal to deregulate energy projects’ development. It faces an uncertain future, in part due to opposition from Tribal Nations and organizations focused on environmental justice. The package’s prospects might dim further if Democrats flip the House or Senate, putting them in a stronger position to secure wins in the bill next year.

Expired/expiring authorities. Extensions for federal authorities that have expired this year or are set to expire—amoing them, government surveillance power, the farm bill, and surface transportation reauthorization—could hitch a ride on moving legislation, like an appropriations bill or NDAA. Again, though, the likelihood of long-term extensions could hinge on whether Democrats win one or both chambers and, as a result, block lame duck action in favor of renewals they can help craft next year. 

College sports bill. A bipartisan bill regulating college sports passed the Senate in September. Whether it moves in the House in the lame duck will, once again, depend in part on the midterms. The bill garnered opposition from the NAACP and the AFL-CIO due to its lack of strong protections for student athletes—an issue that, again, Democrats could seek to correct next year should they win control of either chamber. 

Several foreign affairs matters. The lame duck could see numerous Members force votes—via discharge petitions or other privileged mechanisms—on foreign policy issues, from blocking Russian oil imports, to keeping the U.S. out of an unauthorized war in Yemen, to impeaching Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Whether legislation on these matters comes to a vote may depend on U.S. actions in the coming weeks, including whether President Trump decides to join Saudi Arabia’s strikes on Yemen as he suggested he might. 

While we have a sense of which votes Congress could prioritize in November and December, it’s hard to predict how those votes will shake out without knowing what happens on Election Day. We’ll keep you posted as the lame duck calendar becomes clearer. 

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!