06.02.26 - What slush fund fears mean for reconciliation

Republicans in Congress spent May racing to funnel more taxpayer money to President Trump’s mass deportation machine via a party-line reconciliation bill. That effort began unraveling before Memorial Day—first over a now-stricken $1 billion earmark for the President’s 90,000 square-foot ballroom, now over a $1.8 billion taxpayer-financed slush fund to compensate Americans who believe the government was “weaponized” against them. 

We’ll parse the details and what they mean for Congress’ next steps.   

Slush fund fears 

Here’s the problem in a nutshell: President Trump’s political allies, including people convicted of violent crimes during the January 6 insurrection, want to tap into this so-called anti-weaponization fund. Republicans in Congress want to make sure that can’t happen, or for the fund to go away altogether—something the White House hasn’t quite been willing to promise. 

The issue isn’t that the reconciliation bill creates or finances the slush fund, although it does give funding to the Department of Justice that Republicans fear could be redirected for that purpose. Senate GOP leaders know Democrats will propose amendments targeting the slush fund. Unless the White House scraps the fund or sufficiently convinces Republicans that it won’t pay out insurrectionists, some Senate Republicans may vote for those amendments. If enough of them do and the amendments pass, the President could ultimately be presented with a bill that funds his deportation machine, but restricts his power to enrich his political allies. 

That’s a bill he may not be willing to sign. 

What now? 

Despite many aheadline over the past day suggesting that the fund is kaput, that’s far from certain. 

The administration said yesterday that it would follow a judge’s order that keeps it from setting up the fund before June 12—it didn’t say what it would do after that. Accordingly, numerous GOP senators said this won’t cut it. The Acting Attorney General will appear before House appropriators today, giving lawmakers a chance to get firmer commitments. If that satisfies Republicans, we could see Senate votes on reconciliation proceed before the week is out. 

One thing we’ve not heard is a clear statement from President Trump himself renouncing the slush fund and pledging that he won’t resurrect it in some form down the line. While such an announcement would be just that—a statement the President could renege on later—it could satisfy Republicans in Congress enough to move forward with reconciliation. We’ll see if such a statement emerges in the coming days. 

What happens if Republicans proceed with reconciliation? 

If Republican leaders can unlock the votes to move forward, we’ll see a lengthy Senate debate and amendment process begin. We walked through that process in detail in our last update: check out Reconciliation Rundown + Senate Process Summary. 

The big picture

This reconciliation package is fairly narrowly-focused to what’s oftendescribed as President Trump’s “best” issue: immigration. In theory, a GOP-controlled Congress should have little trouble approving more money for that issue via the party-line reconciliation process. Obviously, that’s not been the case. Why? 

First, the administration’s violent mass deportation regime has moved public opinion.Most Americans think Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is making the country less safe. Accordingly, surging funding to that agency isn’t a political slam dunk—especially less than a year after Congress greenlit anextra $170 billion for immigration enforcement,paid for by cuts to health care and food assistance.

Second, the public’s primary concern continues to be the high cost-of-living. Rising costs show no sign of slowing down, and Republicans’ reconciliation package does nothing to address them. If it did, we may have seen greater urgency on Republicans’ part to get it over the finish line. 

Finally, the President’s pet projects started coming and they don’t stop coming. First it was the attempt to bankroll the ballroom via reconciliation, now it’s the slush fund. Had the President kept these issues out of the spotlight—or, at the very least, out of the bill—this obstacle could have been avoided. 

Instead, the White House has given Democrats a chance to put GOP senators on-the-record when it comes to handing out taxpayer dollars to the President’s allies at a time when the average household is paying an extra $450 for energy and gas and high prices are forcing two-thirds of the country to cut back on spending. 

All of this has made it harder for Republicans to get this package done—to say nothing of a possible third reconciliation bill in the short window before November. We’ll keep you posted as next steps become clear.

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!