04.02.26 - Reconciliation round II could change Congress forever

It’s official: Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process to send more money to Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol. Republican congressional leaders announced their plans after the President demanded a reconciliation bill that funds ICE and Border patrol by June 1.  

Below, I’ll run through some of the key questions that remain and what this all means long-term. This is a long one, but I hope it’ll help clarify what the next couple months—and maybe the future of government funding—will look like. 

What’s happening with Homeland Security funding?

The GOP now plans to advance a bill funding most of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). That bill will exclude ICE and Border Patrol, as Republicans will tackle that via reconciliation. 

As a reminder, Democrats proposed funding almost-all-of-DHS on February 11, before DHS even shut down, to allow talks on reforming immigration enforcement to continue. Had Congress taken up the Democratic proposal then, it could have reached this same outcome seven weeks ago, avoiding nearly two months of long airport lines and missed paychecks for DHS workers. 

Or, at the very least, the House could have approved the bill the Senate passed unanimously last week to fund almost-all-of-DHS, instead of panning it and sending lawmakers home for a two-week recess, extending the shutdown. 

But, here we are. The House appears poised to take up that Senate-approved almost-all-of-DHS funding bill—though, evidently, Republicans will not end the two-week recess early to do so. Then, the GOP will embark on another reconciliation effort. 

What’s reconciliation again? 

It’s a process that makes it easier to get bills through the Senate—in Republicans’ case, by sidestepping the need for Democratic support. For more details, check out our Monday issue. For evenmore details, see our explainer, The Basics of Budget Reconciliation.

And why do Republicans want to use this process? 

Republicans want to use reconciliation to approve more funding for ICE and Border Patrol, covering the next three years. This would come on top of last summer’s GOP budget law, which allocated an extra $170 billion for immigration enforcement—paid for by cuts to health care and food assistance. 

Is that all they’re going to use reconciliation for?

TBD. President Trump’s ask for Congress didn’t mention other priorities, but there are a couple reasons to suspect this bill could cover more than immigration enforcement. 

First: some Republicans will want to see new spending on ICE and Border Patrol offset with cuts to other government services. They’ve already floated health care cuts. 

Second: this bill could be one of the last trains leaving the station before the midterm elections. Let’s say Republicans meet their self-imposed deadline and finish reconciliation by June 1 (more on that prospect below). The House will then have just about 40 days in session before the midterms, during which they’ll need to approve another government funding package. Even if they do try to pass another reconciliation bill in that 40-day window, that could set them up to greenlight a host of politically toxic policies immediately before an election—meaning, some Republicans could balk and doom that package. 

So, given that this June 1 push could represent the last big partisan legislative vehicle that moves this year, it’s hard to imagine Republicans not trying to attach parts of the so-called SAVE America Act or funding to continue the Iran war.

Can Republicans truly pass a reconciliation package by June 1?

Technically, they can. Realistically, it will be hard. 

June 1 is in 60 days. Democrats and Republicans have gotten reconciliation bills done in less time over the past decade—but it’s not the norm. On average, reconciliation bills passed over the last 25 years have taken 179 days to become law after the budget resolution teeing them up passes, and Republicans have yet to take that step. 

Congress is scheduled to return to Washington on April 14. Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that they adopt a budget resolution very quickly: the Friday of that week, April 17. 

Even if Congress works that fast, applying the average timeframe would have them wrapping up reconciliation on October 13. 

Again, they can move faster than that—and they’ll want to. Not just because the President asked for it, but because this exercise is meant to surge funding to an agency that half of America wants to abolish and most Americans think is making the country less safe. Republicans may not want that to be their final act before Americans go to the polls in November. 

All of this means Republicans in Congress will want to move through reconciliation much faster than it usually takes.        

So, what happens next? 

Senate Republicans will reportedly release a budget blueprint directing specific House and Senate committees to write parts of the reconciliation bill and telling each of those committees how much to change government spending or revenue. 

This is important because in telling specific committees to write parts of the bill, the budget resolution defines the universe of topics the bill can possibly cover. The final bill is only going to include policies that fall under those committees’ jurisdiction. 

By the same token, certain committees' inclusion in the budget blueprint could hint at whether this package will indeed only boost ICE and Border Patrol funding, or whether it will include things like health care cuts and Iran war funding. For example, if you see instructions for the Senate Finance Committee or Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, health care cuts could be on the table. 

Here’s a good summary of every congressional committee’s jurisdiction. Note that House and Senate committees—very confusingly—do not mirror one another.

The big picture (short-term and long-term)

This reconciliation push has deeper implications in the short-term and in the long-term. 

Short-term, this tells us that Republicans will spend the next couple months focused on sending billions more in taxpayer dollars to ICE—again, an agency that half of America wants to abolish and most Americans think is making the country less safe—and may do so by taking away Americans’ health care.  

Republicans are doing this while Americans are naming health care costs and access as their number one concern. They’re also doing this less than a year after greenlighting an extra $170 billion for immigration enforcement, paid for by cuts to health care and food assistance, and mere months after the country watched immigration agents kill Renée Good and Alex Pretti.  

Objectively, this points to a major disconnect between what the American people want and what Republicans in Congress and President Trump are prioritizing. 

Long-term, this tells us that the appropriations process may look very different moving forward. 

We could be looking at a future wherein Congress leaves government functions without bipartisan support out of regular funding bills and, instead, pays for them via the partisan reconciliation process. That means taking away the minority party’s ability to exert influence over those funds and how they’re used. It also raises questions about what happens when one party doesn’t control both chambers of Congress and the White House and, therefore, can’t get a reconciliation package through. What happens to those programs then? 

Funding ICE and Border Patrol for three years also has long-term consequences. Ostensibly, this is meant to keep those agencies funded through President Trump’s second term. But in doing so, Republicans are relinquishing Congress’ power. Agencies are responsive to Congress—answering requests for information, appearing at public hearings, and so on—in large part because if they aren’t, Congress has an annual opportunity to cut their funding. 

Funding ICE and Border Patrol for three years would mean that, for three years, those agencies can rest assured that even if they ignore Congress’ attempts to conduct oversight or question their conduct, they’ll stay funded. 

Right now, that means setting up rogue agencies with a history of violent conduct. In the long-term, this new precedent could mean a whole host of rogue agencies that won’t answer to the people’s representatives in Congress. 

This is a big deal. We’ll keep you posted.

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!