01.30.26 - Outstanding questions on the Senate’s funding deal

With hours to go before sizable parts of the government run out of funding, Congress is still working on a way to keep the government open and continue talks on reining in ICE and Border Patrol. On Monday and Wednesday, we explained congressional Democrats’ demands for soon-to-expire government funding bills after immigration agents killed Renée Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis. Below, we’ll break down the latest developments. 

Where do things stand now?

Yesterday, Senate Democrats and a handful of Republicans defeated a motion to tee up a six-bill government funding package. That package funded the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—among other departments—through September 30, without any changes to address immigration agents’ tactics in the Twin Cities. Senate Democrats proposed changes dealing with those issues on Wednesday (see details in Wednesday’s issue). 

First, though, Democrats called for stripping the DHS funding bill from the larger package. This would allow funding for the rest of the government to proceed while DHS talks continue. Senate Republicans, Democrats, and the White House reached a deal to do just that last night. 

Should Congress pass this agreement, most of the government will be funded through September 30 and DHS will be funded for two weeks. This would keep DHS—which also encompasses the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and other agencies—open during negotiations to reform ICE and Border Patrol. This two-week deadline is much shorter than the six-week stopgap Republicans preferred. 

Remember: even if DHS were to shut down, ICE and Border Patrol operations would continue unabated. Last summer’s Republicans’ budget law slashed Medicaid and food assistance to funnel an extra $170 billion to immigration enforcement. That funding would keep ICE and Border Patrol afloat even if the rest of DHS’ funding lapsed.   

The Senate is working on passing this deal today. That will require all 100 senators’ buy-in. Otherwise, the process could take days. The package would then go back to the House, which isn’t scheduled to return to D.C. until Monday. That means even if the Senate manages to wrap up their work today, there could be a shutdown starting tonight, perhaps just over the weekend—depending on what happens in the House.  

Outstanding questions

Where are House Republicans? 

House Republicans are expected to have a one-vote majority come Monday, following a special election in Texas this weekend. Far-right House members are already signaling their displeasure with the Senate’s agreement. This begs the question: will sufficient numbers of House Republicans vote to approve a rule to consider the Senate agreement? 

Votes on the rule—which set the parameters for debate on a bill—are typically party-line and, again, Speaker Johnson has virtually no room for error. There’s a chance GOP holdouts fold, as they have on previous votes during this Congress. If GOP hardliners won’t budge, even with pressure from the White House, and the Speaker can’t get a rule through the House, he could bring up the Senate deal under suspension of the rules. That requires support from two-thirds of the House—meaning, a lot of House Democrats would need to vote yes on the funding package. 

Where are House Democrats? 

As of early Friday morning, it’s not clear whether there would be adequate Democratic support for a suspension vote in the House—especially when it’s not clear what, if anything, might emerge from two weeks of negotiations on DHS funding. 

There is some daylight between the list of Senate Democratic demands announced on Wednesday and a Thursday proposal from Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) and New Democrat Coalition (New Dem) leaders in the House. Notably, the CPC and New Dem chairs called for ICE and Border Patrol to leave Minneapolis; an end to arrests at sensitive locations like churches and schools; halting the detention and deportation of U.S. citizens; and stronger standards of care at detention facilities. The question now is whether the delta between Senate Democrats’ demands and those from CPC and New Dems impacts a vote on this funding package to keep DHS open for two weeks. 

We’ll continue to keep you posted.

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!