01.26.26 - What happens to government funding now?

The murder of Alex Pretti, an American VA nurse, by a border patrol agent in Minnesota on Saturday has upended the path forward for a government funding package pending before the Senate. I’ll run down where things stand and what to look out for next. 

But first, let me wish all of this newsletter’s readers a safe, peaceful week during a dangerous and deeply upsetting time. Please take care of yourselves. 

Government funding recap

Of the 12 appropriations bills needed to keep the government open through Fiscal Year (FY) 2026, six have already become law:

• Agriculture

• Commerce-Justice-Science

• Energy-Water

• Interior-Environment

• Legislative Branch

• Military Construction-Veterans Affairs 

The six outstanding bills have passed the House, but must pass the Senate and be signed into law before January 30 to avoid a partial government shutdown. These outstanding bills are: 

• Defense 

• Financial Services-General Government

• Homeland Security

• Labor-Health and Human Services-Education 

• National Security-State

• Transportation-Housing and Urban Development

The House left Washington for recess last Thursday, putting the onus on the Senate to take or leave the six House-approved bills as a single package. 

If the Senate passes the package as-is, the entire government will be funded through September. However, if the Senate changes the package at all, the amended version must win House approval before it can become law. 

What changed this weekend

For weeks, immigration agents have unleashed violence against the people of the Twin Cities, including killing Renee Good, tear-gassing a family in their car, pepper-spraying an already-immobilized man, and taking 5-year-old Liam Ramos into custody. 

Democrats negotiating FY 2026 funding sought changes to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appropriations bill to address recent weeks’ events. Republicans rebuffed those efforts, refusing even to bar funds from being used to deport American citizens. As a result, most House Democrats voted against DHS funding last Thursday. That vote occurred independently, allowing lawmakers to oppose DHS funding while still voting to fund other parts of the government. 

However, Senate Democrats don’t currently have that option. The Senate plans to consider one package consisting of the six remaining funding bills. The package must garner 60 votes to pass. Republicans hold just 53 Senate seats, so the package needs Democratic support.

But sufficient Democratic support for the current funding package evaporated when a Border Patrol agent killed Alex Pretti this weekend—the second American citizen killed by a federal agent in Minnesota in less than three weeks. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, top appropriator Patty Murray, and several other Senate Democrats have said in the last 48 hours that they will not vote for the six-bill government funding package if it continues to include DHS. 

What happens now? 

Can Congress reach an agreement to fund DHS and pass that agreement through the House and Senate? Probably not before government funding runs out on Friday. There have been some signs of GOP discomfort with agents’ violent tactics in Minnesota. However, it’s not clear how widespread those feelings are, nor have they come close to demands from congressional Democrats, such as ending the assault on Minnesota, stopping the detention and deportation of American citizens, or requiring warrants for immigration arrests. 

As such, I’ll run through just two possible scenarios for this week: one in which DHS remains part of the six-bill funding package pending before the Senate, and one in which DHS is stripped out, allowing the rest of the package to pass while DHS talks continue.

If DHS remains part of the funding package 

Removing DHS from this package would need unanimous Senate approval, which seems like a tall order given Republicans’ positions to-date. If the package continues to fund DHS, it appears—based on Senate Democrats’ statements so far—that the package will not get sufficient Democratic votes to pass. If an impasse persists through January 30, agencies funded by the six outstanding appropriations bills will shut down.

Notably, last summer’s Republican budget law gave Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) tens of billions in extra funding. As a result, ICE and CBP will likely continue operating even as other agencies shut down. 

If DHS is removed from the funding package 

Let’s say senators reach an agreement to strip out DHS funding, allowing for a vote on just the other five appropriations bills (Defense; Financial Services-General Government; Labor-Health and Human Services-Education; National Security-State; and Transportation-Housing and Urban Development). That five-bill package would presumably pass the Senate. 

However, this change would require the House to vote again to approve the new five-bill spending deal. The House has left D.C. until February 2, meaning House Speaker Mike Johnson would have to bring the House back and allow a vote on the package that excludes DHS funding—none of which is a given. Without this House vote before January 30, agencies funded by the six outstanding appropriations bills will shut down. 

If the House does vote and passes a Senate-approved, five-bill funding package and the President signs it—again, none of which is a given—the agencies that those five bills fund will remain open and just DHS will shut down.

Again, in both of those scenarios, ICE and CBP can continue operating using the extra funding Republicans gave them last summer. The funding lapse would affect other DHS agencies, like the Transportation Security Administration (TSA). 

The upshot

Republicans in Congress have the power to keep the government open and respond to immigration agents’ violence. If they refuse to work with Democrats on the latter this week, they could agree to remove DHS funding from the current appropriations package and pass the other five bills while DHS talks continue. The resulting DHS funding lapse would mean TSA agents working without pay, long airport delays, and more—all due to Republicans’ refusal to rein in ICE and CBP. 

But if Republicans don’t allow for a separate vote on DHS funding, they will likely prompt a much broader government shutdown—again, all to avoid placing any new checks on the immigration agencies that have unleashed weeks of violence on the people of Minnesota. 

We’ll continue to keep you updated. 

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!