02.04.26 - Reading the signs as another funding deadline looms

Congress has now funded most of the government through the end of Fiscal Year (FY) 2026, with one notable exception. The government funding package Congress approved on Tuesday only funded the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) through February 13, giving lawmakers just over a week to negotiate the next DHS funding bill. 

Advocates and immigration policy experts have recommended several changes to ICE and Border Patrol’s funding levels and policies in the wake of Renée Good and Alex Pretti’s murders. Senate Democrats, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and the New Democrat Coalition have put forward their own proposals, and Senate Majority Leader Schumer said an offer from Democrats writ large is forthcoming. Whether it will contain any options that can get through the GOP-controlled House and Senate remains to be seen. 

For now, I’ll outline what could happen come February 13, irrespective of the actual policy proposals on the table. 

If/then

If there’s a bipartisan agreement on immigration enforcement policies and funding and it’s written into legislative text, then Congress could approve a full-year DHS funding bill before the deadline.  

The likelihood of this happening is slim to none. The parties are very far apart on policy. It’s hard to see them getting to an agreement and putting it in writing and giving rank-and-file lawmakers at least a couple days to review it and finishing votes in both chambers in the limited time they have. 

But on the off chance this does happen, then Congress can vote on a bill that funds DHS through September 30 and get to work on next year’s appropriations bills.  

If there isn’t an agreement, but they’re making good progress—either they have a deal in principle and need to write the legislation, or they’re getting close to a deal—then Congress could pass another short-term DHS continuing resolution (CR). 

In practice, this will look like positive (if cryptic) statements from party leaders and key negotiators on the Appropriations Committee. 

If this happens, we could see another short-term DHS funding patch to allow more time for talks. However, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has suggested that House Dems are loath to pass another stopgap—meaning, talks would need to show a lot of progress to get Democratic buy-in for more negotiating time. 

If talks aren’t going anywhere, then Congress could pass a long-term DHS CR. 

This would probably look like more statements along the lines of those we’ve seen thus far—i.e., party leaders panning the other party’s proposals or claiming the other side doesn’t actually want a deal. 

If that’s the case, expect more lawmakers to call for a continuing resolution (CR) that funds DHS at current levels through the fiscal year, rather than another short-term patch (and perhaps another one after that). Again, Leader Jeffries does not seem keen on this option, meaning House Republicans would likely need to approve a long-term CR without much Democratic support. 

The other option: a DHS shutdown

Of course, it’s possible that none of these options—a full-year DHS bill, a short-term DHS CR, or a long-term DHS CR—can pass both chambers by February 13. In that case, DHS will shut down until there’s sufficient support for one of these paths. 

Remember: even if DHS were to shut down, ICE and Border Patrol operations would continue unabated. Last summer’s Republican budget law slashed Medicaid and food assistance to funnel an extra $170 billion to immigration enforcement. That funding would keep ICE and Border Patrol afloat even if the rest of DHS’ funding lapsed.   

We’ll continue to keep you posted. 

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@webuildprogress.org. Thanks!