10.21.25 - Timeline: What to Expect If the Shutdown Continues
Today marks a couple of milestones in the life of this government shutdown. It’s been three weeks since September 30, the last day the government was funded. We’re also one month out from November 21, the day the House Republican-proposed funding bill would expire. So, even if that House GOP bill were to pass in the next couple days—and there’s no indication that this is in the cards—it wouldn’t even keep the government open for a month.
Since there’s still no end to the shutdown in sight, I thought it might be instructive to forecast some of the other big moments to come between now and Thanksgiving—and there are a bunch.
Understanding the timeline
Some of the dates in the timeline below are relatively self-explanatory, such as the scheduled paydays on which federal workers won’t be paid if the shutdown continues and the servicemember paydays on which troops may continue to be paid if the President keeps moving money around to do so, despite those moves’ dubious legality.
Other dates require a bit more context—namely, those concerning the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), often referred to as food stamps. Last week, the Secretary of Agriculture said the program lacked sufficient funds to cover November SNAP benefits due to the shutdown, jeopardizing food access for 40 million Americans.
What the Secretary did not note is that the Trump administration can address that shortfall. A SNAP contingency fund exists, and the administration has the legal authority to transfer money for nutrition programs to supplement that contingency fund. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a helpful breakdown on this topic, here.
That means the administration already has most of the money needed to preserve Americans’ November SNAP benefits—if not in full, at least in part.
The timeline below indicates key dates that states have identified as deadlines after which they won’t be able to guarantee their residents’ November SNAP benefits, should the shutdown continue—and should the administration fail to use its existing funding to protect food access. This list is not exhaustive and reflects state announcements at the time of publication; more announcements will undoubtedly follow.
Finally, the timeline below assumes the shutdown extends up to and beyond these dates. This isn’t a prediction—just an exercise to illustrate the implications if the shutdown indeed does reach these dates.
For more analysis on this shutdown and its consequences, including the significance of key moments like health care open enrollment beginning November 1, check out some of our most recent updates:
Sources: Minnesota to stop processing SNAP benefits amid federal government shutdown; 2025 payroll calendar | GSA; Shutdown could halt SNAP benefits for millions, states say; 10/15/25 ☀️ AM: - Punchbowl News; When can you get health insurance? | HealthCare.gov; Trump’s Administration: SNAP Benefits Slated to be Cut Off on November 1; There's About To Be An Awful New Consequence Of The Shutdown | HuffPost Latest News; 6 shutdown pain points - POLITICO; Military Active Duty and Retired Posting Calendar 2025 | Navy Federal Credit Union; Roll Call Votes; H.R.5371 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026; Air traffic control staffing issues cause flight delays across U.S.
If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!